Earias biplaga
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~30%
Earias biplaga, the spiny bollworm, is a moth in the family Nolidae. The species was first described by Francis Walker in 1866. It is found throughout subtropical Africa including Atlantic and Indian Ocean islands. Their length is about 10–12 mm, wingspan about 18–25 mm and it is characterised by a dark purplish-brown terminal fringe on the forewing.
The larvae feed on species of Fabaceae and Malvaceae. It is considered as a pest to cotton and cacao. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hluhluwe-Imfolozi Park | 🇿🇦 South Africa | |
| 2 | Addo Elephant National Park | 🇿🇦 South Africa | |
| 3 | Kruger National Park | 🇿🇦 South Africa | |
| 4 | Table Mountain National Park | 🇿🇦 South Africa |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antananarivo | 🇲🇬 Madagascar | |
| 2 | Harare | 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe | |
| 3 | Nairobi | 🇰🇪 Kenya | |
| 4 | Pretoria | 🇿🇦 South Africa | |
| 5 | Durban | 🇿🇦 South Africa |
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report a Spiny Bollworm sighting in Durban on a given day, based on 11 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 186th most-seen of the 401 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
March–June, October and December
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Spiny Bollworm in Durban on a given day, against under 5% in January–February, July–September and November, the lowest months.
Between 7 and 10 pm
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Spiny Bollworm sightings with a recorded time, and about 8 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is mostly seen at night.
5th of 5
Of the 5 cities where we can rate Spiny Bollworm sightings, Durban ranks 5th at under 5%. The best odds are in Antananarivo (Madagascar, about 10%), Harare (Zimbabwe, about 10%) and Nairobi (Kenya, about 10%).
Same order: Lepidoptera
The closest relatives of the Spiny Bollworm that you can see in Durban (order Lepidoptera, Butterflies and Moths) are Spotted Brown Pansy (about 30%), Dark Blue Pansy (about 20%) and Common Mother-Of-Pearl (about 20%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Spiny Bollworm is recorded against all the insects logged in Durban (11 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
