Cacoecimorpha pronubana
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~30%
Cacoecimorpha is a monotypic moth genus of the family Tortricidae. Cacoecimorpha pronubana—the carnation tortrix—is its sole species and is found in Europe, northern Africa, South Africa, Anatolia and North America. The wingspan is 18–22 mm for females and 15–17 mm for males. The forewings ground colour is light reddish ochreous with darker lines. The forewing costa is rounded. The hindwings are bright orange. Julius von Kennel provides a full description.
Adults are on wing from May to June and again from August to September depending on the location. The larvae feed on a wide variety of deciduous trees, shrubs and herbaceous plants. It can become a pest on olive trees and avocados. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany |
More parks will be added in future updates.
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Athens | 🇬🇷 Greece | |
| 2 | Rotterdam [The Hague] | 🇳🇱 Netherlands | |
| 3 | Istanbul | 🇹🇷 Turkey | |
| 4 | Lyon | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 5 | Amsterdam | 🇳🇱 Netherlands | |
| 6 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 7 | Paris | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 8 | Rome | 🇮🇹 Italy | |
| 9 | Copenhagen | 🇩🇰 Denmark | |
| 10 | Portland | 🇺🇸 United States |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Carnation Tortrix sighting in Istanbul on a given day, based on 9 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 156th most-seen of the 266 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
April to August
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Carnation Tortrix in Istanbul on a given day, against under 5% in September to March, the lowest months.
Between 10 am and 1 pm
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Carnation Tortrix sightings with a recorded time, and about 7 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is a daytime animal.
Among the best
Of the 12 cities where we can rate Carnation Tortrix sightings, Istanbul ranks 3rd at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Athens (Greece, about 10%) and Rotterdam [The Hague] (Netherlands, about 10%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Carnation Tortrix is recorded against all the insects logged in Istanbul (9 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
