Acronicta psi
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~40%
The grey dagger (Acronicta psi) is a moth of the family Noctuidae. This species can be found from Europe and North Africa to northern Iran, central Asia, southern and central Siberia and Mongolia. In the Levant it is found in Lebanon and Israel.
These moths mainly inhabit deciduous forests, hedgerows, parks and gardens, at an elevation up to 1,600 metres (5,200 ft) above sea level. Acronicta psi has a wingspan of 34–45 mm (1.3–1.8 in). These moths have grey forewings with bold black dagger-shaped markings. (The Latin specific name also refers to these markings, as resembling the Greek letter psi, ψ.) The hindwings are dirty grey, generally paler in the male.
The moth is very similar to the dark dagger (Acronicta tridens) and identification is generally only possible by minute examination of the genitalia. See Townsend et al. However, in general this moth is generally darker in colour than the dark dagger and always lacks the white hindwings often present in the male of that species. Moreover, the larvae of the two species are very different.
The larva of Acronicta psi is quite hairy, greyish or brownish below and black above, with... Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 2 | Cairngorms National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | Cévennes National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 4 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Copenhagen | 🇩🇰 Denmark | |
| 5 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 6 | Helsinki | 🇫🇮 Finland | |
| 7 | Novosibirsk | 🇷🇺 Russia | |
| 8 | Warsaw | 🇵🇱 Poland | |
| 9 | Munich | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 10 | Hamburg | 🇩🇪 Germany |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Grey Dagger sighting in Manchester on a given day, based on 21 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 175th most-seen of the 458 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 40%, if each day is a fresh chance.
September and October
In those months about 20% of wildlife watchers report a Grey Dagger in Manchester on a given day, against under 5% in November to June, the lowest months.
Between 3 and 6 pm
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Grey Dagger sightings with a recorded time, and about 8 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is a daytime animal.
Among the best
Of the 14 cities where we can rate Grey Dagger sightings, Manchester ranks 2nd at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Liverpool (United Kingdom, about 10%).
Same genus: Acronicta
The closest relatives of the Grey Dagger that you can see in Manchester (genus Acronicta, Dagger Moths) are Sycamore Moth (about 10%), Knot Grass Moth (about 10%) and The Miller (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Grey Dagger is recorded against all the insects logged in Manchester (21 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
