Acronicta megacephala
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~30%
The poplar grey (Acronicta megacephala) is a moth of the family Noctuidae. It is found throughout Europe. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 2 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 3 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Budapest | 🇭🇺 Hungary | |
| 3 | Kyiv | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | |
| 4 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 5 | Nizhny Novgorod | 🇷🇺 Russia | |
| 6 | Helsinki | 🇫🇮 Finland | |
| 7 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 8 | Berlin | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 9 | Porto | 🇵🇹 Portugal | |
| 10 | Moscow | 🇷🇺 Russia |
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report a Poplar Grey sighting in Manchester on a given day, based on 9 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 346th most-seen of the 458 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
June and July
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Poplar Grey in Manchester on a given day, against under 5% in August to May, the lowest months.
Between 11 pm and 2 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Poplar Grey sightings with a recorded time, and about 6 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is seen both by day and at night.
4th of 13
Of the 13 cities where we can rate Poplar Grey sightings, Manchester ranks 4th at under 5%. The best odds are in Liverpool (United Kingdom, about 10%), Budapest (Hungary, about 10%) and Kyiv (Ukraine, about 10%).
Same genus: Acronicta
The closest relatives of the Poplar Grey that you can see in Manchester (genus Acronicta, Dagger Moths) are Sycamore Moth (about 10%), Knot Grass Moth (about 10%) and Grey Dagger (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Poplar Grey is recorded against all the insects logged in Manchester (9 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
