Lycia ursaria
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~20%
Lycia ursaria, the stout spanworm moth or bear, is a moth of the family Geometridae. The species was first described by Francis Walker in 1860. It is found in southern Canada and the northern United States, south to New Jersey and Iowa.
The wingspan is about 45 mm. Adults are on wing from March to June in one generation per year. The larvae feed on the leaves of various broadleaved trees and shrubs, including Alnus, Malus, Fraxinus, Tilia, Betula, Vaccinium, Cornus, Ulmus, Crataegus, Populus and Salix. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|
More parks will be added in future updates.
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edmonton | 🇨🇦 Canada | |
| 2 | Minneapolis [Saint Paul] | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 3 | Toronto | 🇨🇦 Canada | |
| 4 | Montreal | 🇨🇦 Canada |
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report a Stout Spanworm Moth sighting in Minneapolis [Saint Paul] on a given day, based on 7 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 503rd most-seen of the 672 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 20%, if each day is a fresh chance.
June
In that month about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Stout Spanworm Moth in Minneapolis [Saint Paul] on a given day, against under 5% in July to May, the lowest months. That is one of Minneapolis [Saint Paul]'s wettest months, with about 130 mm of rain against 20 mm in January.
Among the best
Of the 4 cities where we can rate Stout Spanworm Moth sightings, Minneapolis [Saint Paul] ranks 2nd at under 5%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Edmonton (Canada, under 5%).
Same family: Geometridae
The closest relatives of the Stout Spanworm Moth that you can see in Minneapolis [Saint Paul] (family Geometridae, Geometer Moths) are Chickweed Geometer Moth (about 10%), Lesser Maple Spanworm Moth (about 10%) and Fall Cankerworm Moth (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Stout Spanworm Moth is recorded against all the insects logged in Minneapolis [Saint Paul] (7 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
