What are the chances of seeing an Elm Spanworm Moth in Minneapolis [Saint Paul]?
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report an Elm Spanworm Moth sighting in Minneapolis [Saint Paul] on a given day, based on 35 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 210th most-seen of the 672 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
When is the best time to see an Elm Spanworm Moth in Minneapolis [Saint Paul]?
June and July
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report an Elm Spanworm Moth in Minneapolis [Saint Paul] on a given day, against under 5% in August to May, the lowest months. Those are among Minneapolis [Saint Paul]'s wettest months, with about 110 mm of rain a month against 20 mm in January.
Is Minneapolis [Saint Paul] the best place to see an Elm Spanworm Moth?
Yes
Of the 8 cities where we can rate Elm Spanworm Moth sightings, Minneapolis [Saint Paul] has the highest daily chance: under 5%. Next come Toronto (Canada, under 5%) and Chicago (United States, under 5%).
Which relatives of the Elm Spanworm Moth live in Minneapolis [Saint Paul]?
Same family: Geometridae
The closest relatives of the Elm Spanworm Moth that you can see in Minneapolis [Saint Paul] (family Geometridae, Geometer Moths) are Chickweed Geometer Moth (about 10%), Lesser Maple Spanworm Moth (about 10%) and Fall Cankerworm Moth (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
Where does the Elm Spanworm Moth sighting chance come from?
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Elm Spanworm Moth is recorded against all the insects logged in Minneapolis [Saint Paul] (35 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.