Earias biplaga
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~50%
Earias biplaga, the spiny bollworm, is a moth in the family Nolidae. The species was first described by Francis Walker in 1866. It is found throughout subtropical Africa including Atlantic and Indian Ocean islands. Their length is about 10–12 mm, wingspan about 18–25 mm and it is characterised by a dark purplish-brown terminal fringe on the forewing.
The larvae feed on species of Fabaceae and Malvaceae. It is considered as a pest to cotton and cacao. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hluhluwe-Imfolozi Park | 🇿🇦 South Africa | |
| 2 | Addo Elephant National Park | 🇿🇦 South Africa | |
| 3 | Kruger National Park | 🇿🇦 South Africa | |
| 4 | Table Mountain National Park | 🇿🇦 South Africa |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antananarivo | 🇲🇬 Madagascar | |
| 2 | Harare | 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe | |
| 3 | Nairobi | 🇰🇪 Kenya | |
| 4 | Pretoria | 🇿🇦 South Africa | |
| 5 | Durban | 🇿🇦 South Africa |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Spiny Bollworm sighting in Nairobi on a given day, based on 6 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 82nd most-seen of the 123 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 50%, if each day is a fresh chance.
February, April and November
In those months about 20% of wildlife watchers report a Spiny Bollworm in Nairobi on a given day, against under 5% in March, June–October and December–January, the lowest months. Those are among Nairobi's wettest months, with about 100 mm of rain a month against 25 mm in July.
Between 7 and 10 pm
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Spiny Bollworm sightings with a recorded time, and about 8 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is mostly seen at night.
Among the best
Of the 5 cities where we can rate Spiny Bollworm sightings, Nairobi ranks 3rd at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Antananarivo (Madagascar, about 10%) and Harare (Zimbabwe, about 10%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Spiny Bollworm is recorded against all the insects logged in Nairobi (6 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
