Spilarctia subcarnea
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~30%
Spilarctia subcarnea is a moth in the family Erebidae. It was described by Francis Walker in 1855. It is found in Nepal, China (Hong Kong, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Hubei, Sichuan, Beijing, Shandong Heilongjiang, Shaanxi, Jiangsu, Hunan, Fujian, Yunnan, Jilin, Guangdong, Dunbei, Nei Mongol, Guizhou, Gansu, Henan, Liaonin, Hebei, Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangxi, Guangxi), the Russian Far East, Korea, Japan and Taiwan. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
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More parks will be added in future updates.
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report a Spilarctia subcarnea sighting in Shanghai on a given day, based on 6 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 166th most-seen of the 215 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
May and August
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Spilarctia subcarnea in Shanghai on a given day, against under 5% in June–July and September–April, the lowest months.
2nd of 4
Of the 4 cities where we can rate Spilarctia subcarnea sightings, Shanghai ranks 2nd at under 5%. The best odds are in Tuen Mun (China, about 10%).
Same family: Erebidae
The closest relatives of the Spilarctia subcarnea that you can see in Shanghai (family Erebidae, Underwing, Tiger, Tussock, and Allied Moths) are Amata formosae (about 10%) and Grote's Tussock Moth (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Spilarctia subcarnea is recorded against all the insects logged in Shanghai (6 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
