Ponometia elegantula
In 3 days ~40% in a week ~60%
Ponometia elegantula, the Arizona bird dropping moth, is a species of bird dropping moth in the family Noctuidae. The species was first described by Leon F. Harvey in 1876. The MONA or Hodges number for Ponometia elegantula is 9109. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Death Valley National Park | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 2 | Joshua Tree National Park | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 3 | Big Bend National Park | 🇺🇸 United States |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report an Arizona Bird-Dropping Moth sighting in Death Valley National Park on a given day, based on 16 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data from 2019 to 2026. It is the 31st most-seen of the 108 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 40%, and over a week to about 60%, if each day is a fresh chance.
August
In that month about 30% of wildlife watchers report an Arizona Bird-Dropping Moth in Death Valley National Park on a given day, against under 5% in September and November–January, the lowest months. That is one of Death Valley National Park's wettest months, with about 30 mm of rain against 5 mm in June.
Between 8 and 11 pm
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Arizona Bird-Dropping Moth sightings with a recorded time, and about 8 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is mostly seen at night.
Yes
Of the 3 parks where we can rate Arizona Bird-Dropping Moth sightings, Death Valley National Park has the highest daily chance: about 10%. Next come Joshua Tree National Park (United States, about 10%) and Big Bend National Park (United States, about 10%).
Same family: Noctuidae
The closest relatives of the Arizona Bird-Dropping Moth that you can see in Death Valley National Park (family Noctuidae, Cutworm Moths and Allies) are Beet Armyworm Moth (about 10%), Schinia ligeae (about 10%) and Red-Lined Moth (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Arizona Bird-Dropping Moth is recorded against all the insects logged in Death Valley National Park (16 verified sightings from 2019 to 2026), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
