Earias biplaga
In 3 days ~40% in a week ~60%
Earias biplaga, the spiny bollworm, is a moth in the family Nolidae. The species was first described by Francis Walker in 1866. It is found throughout subtropical Africa including Atlantic and Indian Ocean islands. Their length is about 10–12 mm, wingspan about 18–25 mm and it is characterised by a dark purplish-brown terminal fringe on the forewing.
The larvae feed on species of Fabaceae and Malvaceae. It is considered as a pest to cotton and cacao. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hluhluwe-Imfolozi Park | 🇿🇦 South Africa | |
| 2 | Addo Elephant National Park | 🇿🇦 South Africa | |
| 3 | Kruger National Park | 🇿🇦 South Africa | |
| 4 | Table Mountain National Park | 🇿🇦 South Africa |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antananarivo | 🇲🇬 Madagascar | |
| 2 | Harare | 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe | |
| 3 | Nairobi | 🇰🇪 Kenya | |
| 4 | Pretoria | 🇿🇦 South Africa | |
| 5 | Durban | 🇿🇦 South Africa |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Spiny Bollworm sighting in Antananarivo on a given day, based on 6 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 48th most-seen of the 59 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 40%, and over a week to about 60%, if each day is a fresh chance.
June
In that month about 40% of wildlife watchers report a Spiny Bollworm in Antananarivo on a given day, against under 5% in April–May and August–February, the lowest months. That is one of Antananarivo's driest months, with about 85 mm of rain against 480 mm in January.
Between 7 and 10 pm
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Spiny Bollworm sightings with a recorded time, and about 8 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is mostly seen at night.
Yes
Of the 5 cities where we can rate Spiny Bollworm sightings, Antananarivo has the highest daily chance: about 10%. Next come Harare (Zimbabwe, about 10%) and Nairobi (Kenya, about 10%).
Same order: Lepidoptera
The closest relatives of the Spiny Bollworm that you can see in Antananarivo (order Lepidoptera, Butterflies and Moths) are Royal Blue Pansy (about 60%), African Grass Blue (about 40%) and Island Brown Pansy (about 40%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Spiny Bollworm is recorded against all the insects logged in Antananarivo (6 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
