Anticarsia gemmatalis
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~30%
Anticarsia gemmatalis is a tropical species of caterpillar and moth that migrates north each season. The species can commonly be found in the Gulf states, north as far as Wisconsin. The adults have wings that are grayish brown, crossed with brown or black zigzag lines. The caterpillars are black or green, with narrow lighter stripes on the back and sides. They spit out a brownish substance, spring into the air and wriggle a lot when they are disturbed. The species eats velvet beans, peanut, soybeans, cotton, kudzu, alfalfa, cowpeas, horse beans, snap beans, lima beans, and coffeeweeds. Its common name is velvetbean caterpillar and velvetbean moth.
Egg viability was highest at 25 °C (77 °F) and adaptation to higher temperatures did not occur over a three generation observation. This suggests global warming will reduce A. gemmatalis losses on soybeans in tropical areas that are already at 25 °C (77 °F) but increase predation on soybeans in areas currently below that temperature, thus in fact only shifting the affected area. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Main Ridge Forest Reserve | 🇹🇹 Trinidad and Tobago | |
| 2 | Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 3 | Everglades National Park | 🇺🇸 United States |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cordoba | 🇦🇷 Argentina | |
| 2 | Buenos Aires | 🇦🇷 Argentina | |
| 3 | Austin | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 4 | Dallas | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 5 | Houston | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 6 | San Antonio | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 7 | Orlando | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 8 | Baltimore | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 9 | Monterrey | 🇲🇽 México | |
| 10 | Miami | 🇺🇸 United States |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Velvetbean Caterpillar Moth sighting in Austin on a given day, based on 61 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 430th most-seen of the 1624 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
September to November
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Velvetbean Caterpillar Moth in Austin on a given day, against under 5% in December to August, the lowest months.
Between 9 pm and midnight
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Velvetbean Caterpillar Moth sightings with a recorded time, and about 6 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is seen both by day and at night.
Among the best
Of the 14 cities where we can rate Velvetbean Caterpillar Moth sightings, Austin ranks 3rd at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Cordoba (Argentina, about 10%) and Buenos Aires (Argentina, about 10%).
Same family: Erebidae
The closest relatives of the Velvetbean Caterpillar Moth that you can see in Austin (family Erebidae, Underwing, Tiger, Tussock, and Allied Moths) are Green Cloverworm Moth (about 30%), Salt Marsh Moth (about 20%) and Indomitable Graphic Moth (about 20%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Velvetbean Caterpillar Moth is recorded against all the insects logged in Austin (61 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
