Agrotis porphyricollis
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~30%
Agrotis porphyricollis (variable cutworm) is a noctuid moth. It is found in Tasmania, Victoria and New South Wales. The wingspan is about 30 mm. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Great Otway National Park | 🇦🇺 Australia | |
| 2 | Blue Mountains National Park | 🇦🇺 Australia |
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report a Variable Cutworm sighting in Melbourne on a given day, based on 53 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 250th most-seen of the 875 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
April and October–November
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Variable Cutworm in Melbourne on a given day, against under 5% in May–September and December–March, the lowest months.
Between 8 and 11 pm
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Variable Cutworm sightings with a recorded time, and about half of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is seen both by day and at night.
Yes
Of the 3 cities where we can rate Variable Cutworm sightings, Melbourne has the highest daily chance: under 5%. Next come Perth (Australia, under 5%) and Brisbane (Australia, under 5%).
Same genus: Agrotis
The closest relatives of the Variable Cutworm that you can see in Melbourne (genus Agrotis) are Bogong Moth (about 20%) and Brown Cutworm (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Variable Cutworm is recorded against all the insects logged in Melbourne (53 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
