Cyclophora nanaria
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~30%
Cyclophora nanaria, the dwarf tawny wave, is a moth of the family Geometridae. The species was first described by Francis Walker in 1861. It is found in the US from California to Texas and from New Jersey to Florida west along the Gulf Coast. The range extends south through Dominica and Jamaica to Argentina. It is an introduced species in Hawaii.
The wingspan is about 16 mm. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Big Bend National Park | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 2 | Saguaro National Park | 🇺🇸 United States |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 2 | San Diego | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 3 | Santiago | 🇨🇱 Chile | |
| 4 | Mesa | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 5 | Dallas | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 6 | San Antonio | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 7 | Los Angeles | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 8 | Phoenix | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 9 | Houston | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 10 | Monterrey | 🇲🇽 México |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Dwarf Tawny Wave sighting in Mesa on a given day, based on 12 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 128th most-seen of the 232 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
April to June
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Dwarf Tawny Wave in Mesa on a given day, against under 5% in July to March, the lowest months. Those are among Mesa's driest months, with about 5 mm of rain a month against 35 mm in January.
Between 10 pm and 1 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Dwarf Tawny Wave sightings with a recorded time, and about 8 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is mostly seen at night.
Among the best
Of the 13 cities where we can rate Dwarf Tawny Wave sightings, Mesa ranks 4th at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Austin (United States, about 10%), San Diego (United States, about 10%) and Santiago (Chile, about 10%).
Same family: Geometridae
The closest relatives of the Dwarf Tawny Wave that you can see in Mesa (family Geometridae, Geometer Moths) are Dot-Lined Angle (about 10%) and Creosote Moth (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Dwarf Tawny Wave is recorded against all the insects logged in Mesa (12 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
