Scopula marginepunctata
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~30%
Scopula marginepunctata, the mullein wave, is a moth of the family Geometridae. It was described by Johann August Ephraim Goeze in 1781. It is found throughout Europe. Scopula marginepunctata occurs in Europe from the Iberian Peninsula in the west to the Ural mountains in the east. In the north, the range extends to the south coast of England, the southern Netherlands and the German Baltic Sea coast. However the species is missing in parts of northern Germany. There are isolated occurrences on Bornholm, Skåne and the southern Baltic. In the south, the range extends in North Africa from Morocco in the west to Egypt. The distribution ranges from there further over the Middle East, Asia minor, the Caucasus, northern Iran, Central Asia and Mongolia.
The wingspan is 25–28 millimetres (0.98–1.10 in). The length of the forewings is 12–15 millimetres (0.47–0.59 in). The second generation is often smaller and the moths reach only about 18 mm wingspan. Colour and wing pattern vary. The base colour is off-white to light brown, and the wings are strong dark over dusted with dark scales. In the Swiss Canton of Ticino darkened forms occur, which were formerly... Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sierra Nevada National Park | 🇪🇸 Spain | |
| 2 | Cévennes National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 3 | Sierra de Guadarrama National Park | 🇪🇸 Spain | |
| 4 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France |
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report a Mullein Wave sighting in Prague on a given day, based on 15 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 330th most-seen of the 724 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
May–June and September
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Mullein Wave in Prague on a given day, against under 5% in July–August and October–April, the lowest months.
Between 10 pm and 1 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Mullein Wave sightings with a recorded time, and about 6 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is seen both by day and at night.
3rd of 5
Of the 5 cities where we can rate Mullein Wave sightings, Prague ranks 3rd at under 5%. The best odds are in Budapest (Hungary, about 10%) and Bucharest (Romania, under 5%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Mullein Wave is recorded against all the insects logged in Prague (15 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
