Manduca sexta
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~40%
Manduca sexta is a moth of the family Sphingidae present through much of the Americas. The species was first described by Carl Linnaeus in his 1763 Centuria Insectorum. Commonly known as the Carolina sphinx moth and the tobacco hawk moth (as adults) and the tobacco hornworm and the Goliath worm (as larvae), it is closely related to and often confused with the very similar tomato hornworm (Manduca quinquemaculata); the larvae of both feed on the foliage of various plants of the family Solanaceae. The larvae of these species can be distinguished by their lateral markings: tomato hornworms have eight V-shaped white markings with no borders, while tobacco hornworms have seven white diagonal lines with a black border. Additionally, tobacco hornworms have red horns, while tomato hornworms have dark blue or black horns. A mnemonic to remember the markings is tobacco hornworms have straight white lines like cigarettes, while tomato hornworms have V-shaped markings (as in "vine-ripened" tomatoes). M. sexta has mechanisms for selectively sequestering and secreting the neurotoxin nicotine present in tobacco.
M. sexta is a common model organism, especially in neurobiology, due to its easily accessible nervous system and short life cycle. Because of its immense size M. sexta is big enough for medical imaging modalities (like CT, MRI, or PET) and used as a model in imaging and gut inflammation. It is used in a variety of biomedical and biological scientific experiments. It can be easily raised on a wheat-germ-based diet. The larva is large, and thus it is relatively easy to dissect it and isolate its organs. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Tree National Park | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 2 | Zion National Park | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 3 | Cumbres de Monterrey National Park | 🇲🇽 Mexico | |
| 4 | Saguaro National Park | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 5 | Channel Islands National Park | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 6 | Great Smoky Mountains National Park | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 7 | Shenandoah National Park | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 8 | Everglades National Park | 🇺🇸 United States |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tijuana | 🇲🇽 México | |
| 2 | Las Vegas | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 3 | Detroit | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 4 | Austin | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 5 | Salt Lake City | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 6 | San Diego | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 7 | Los Angeles | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 8 | Phoenix | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 9 | Denver | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 10 | Dallas | 🇺🇸 United States |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Carolina Sphinx sighting in San Diego on a given day, based on 298 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 40th most-seen of the 693 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 40%, if each day is a fresh chance.
August and September
In those months about 20% of wildlife watchers report a Carolina Sphinx in San Diego on a given day, against under 5% in December to June, the lowest months. Those are among San Diego's driest months, with about 5 mm of rain a month against 55 mm in February.
Between 8 and 11 pm
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Carolina Sphinx sightings with a recorded time, and about 6 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is seen both by day and at night.
Among the best
Of the 27 cities where we can rate Carolina Sphinx sightings, San Diego ranks 6th at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Tijuana (México, about 10%), Las Vegas (United States, about 10%) and Detroit (United States, about 10%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Carolina Sphinx is recorded against all the insects logged in San Diego (298 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
