Scopula marginepunctata
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~40%
Scopula marginepunctata, the mullein wave, is a moth of the family Geometridae. It was described by Johann August Ephraim Goeze in 1781. It is found throughout Europe. Scopula marginepunctata occurs in Europe from the Iberian Peninsula in the west to the Ural mountains in the east. In the north, the range extends to the south coast of England, the southern Netherlands and the German Baltic Sea coast. However the species is missing in parts of northern Germany. There are isolated occurrences on Bornholm, Skåne and the southern Baltic. In the south, the range extends in North Africa from Morocco in the west to Egypt. The distribution ranges from there further over the Middle East, Asia minor, the Caucasus, northern Iran, Central Asia and Mongolia.
The wingspan is 25–28 millimetres (0.98–1.10 in). The length of the forewings is 12–15 millimetres (0.47–0.59 in). The second generation is often smaller and the moths reach only about 18 mm wingspan. Colour and wing pattern vary. The base colour is off-white to light brown, and the wings are strong dark over dusted with dark scales. In the Swiss Canton of Ticino darkened forms occur, which were formerly... Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sierra Nevada National Park | 🇪🇸 Spain | |
| 2 | Cévennes National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 3 | Sierra de Guadarrama National Park | 🇪🇸 Spain | |
| 4 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Mullein Wave sighting in Sierra de Guadarrama National Park on a given day, based on 24 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data from 2019 to 2026. It is the 157th most-seen of the 597 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 40%, if each day is a fresh chance.
April–July and September–November
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Mullein Wave in Sierra de Guadarrama National Park on a given day, against under 5% in August and December–March, the lowest months.
Between 10 pm and 1 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Mullein Wave sightings with a recorded time, and about 6 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is seen both by day and at night.
3rd of 4
Of the 4 parks where we can rate Mullein Wave sightings, Sierra de Guadarrama National Park ranks 3rd at about 10%. The best odds are in Sierra Nevada National Park (Spain, about 20%) and Cévennes National Park (France, about 10%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Mullein Wave is recorded against all the insects logged in Sierra de Guadarrama National Park (24 verified sightings from 2019 to 2026), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
