Acronicta megacephala
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~40%
The poplar grey (Acronicta megacephala) is a moth of the family Noctuidae. It is found throughout Europe. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 2 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 3 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Budapest | 🇭🇺 Hungary | |
| 3 | Kyiv | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | |
| 4 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 5 | Nizhny Novgorod | 🇷🇺 Russia | |
| 6 | Helsinki | 🇫🇮 Finland | |
| 7 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 8 | Berlin | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 9 | Porto | 🇵🇹 Portugal | |
| 10 | Moscow | 🇷🇺 Russia |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Poplar Grey sighting in Bavarian Forest National Park on a given day, based on 17 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data from 2019 to 2026. It is the 317th most-seen of the 1115 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 40%, if each day is a fresh chance.
April to September
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Poplar Grey in Bavarian Forest National Park on a given day, against under 5% in October to March, the lowest months.
Between 11 pm and 2 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Poplar Grey sightings with a recorded time, and about 6 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is seen both by day and at night.
Yes
Of the 3 parks where we can rate Poplar Grey sightings, Bavarian Forest National Park has the highest daily chance: about 10%. Next come Wadden Sea National Park (Germany, about 10%) and Pyrénées National Park (France, under 5%).
Same genus: Acronicta
The closest relatives of the Poplar Grey that you can see in Bavarian Forest National Park (genus Acronicta, Dagger Moths) are Knot Grass Moth (about 20%), Sycamore Moth (about 10%) and Grey Dagger (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Poplar Grey is recorded against all the insects logged in Bavarian Forest National Park (17 verified sightings from 2019 to 2026), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
