Acronicta alni
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~40%
Acronicta alni, the alder moth, is a moth of the family Noctuidae. It is found in Europe (from southern Fennoscandia to Spain, Italy and the Balkans), Turkey, the European part of Russia and the neighbouring countries, the Caucasus, the Ural, southern Siberia, Transbaikalia, the Russian Far East (Primorye, Sakhalin, southern Kuriles, Khabarovsk and the Amur region), China, Japan (Hokkaido and Honshu) and the Korean Peninsula. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikko National Park | 🇯🇵 Japan | |
| 2 | Triglav National Park | 🇸🇮 Slovenia | |
| 3 | Snowdonia National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 5 | Cévennes National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 6 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Helsinki | 🇫🇮 Finland | |
| 2 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | Essen | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 4 | Moscow | 🇷🇺 Russia | |
| 5 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report an Alder Moth sighting in Bavarian Forest National Park on a given day, based on 16 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data from 2019 to 2026. It is the 347th most-seen of the 1115 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 40%, if each day is a fresh chance.
April–May and July–August
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report an Alder Moth in Bavarian Forest National Park on a given day, against under 5% in June and September–March, the lowest months.
Between 9 pm and midnight
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Alder Moth sightings with a recorded time, and about 6 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is seen both by day and at night.
4th of 6
Of the 6 parks where we can rate Alder Moth sightings, Bavarian Forest National Park ranks 4th at about 10%. The best odds are in Nikko National Park (Japan, about 20%), Triglav National Park (Slovenia, about 10%) and Snowdonia National Park (United Kingdom, about 10%).
Same genus: Acronicta
The closest relatives of the Alder Moth that you can see in Bavarian Forest National Park (genus Acronicta, Dagger Moths) are Knot Grass Moth (about 20%), Sycamore Moth (about 10%) and Poplar Grey (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Alder Moth is recorded against all the insects logged in Bavarian Forest National Park (16 verified sightings from 2019 to 2026), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
