Acronicta auricoma
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~40%
Acronicta auricoma, the scarce dagger, is a moth of the family Noctuidae. It is distributed through most of the Palearctic. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mercantour National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 2 | Cévennes National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 3 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 4 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moscow | 🇷🇺 Russia |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Scarce Dagger sighting in Bavarian Forest National Park on a given day, based on 10 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data from 2019 to 2026. It is the 523rd most-seen of the 1115 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 40%, if each day is a fresh chance.
June and August–October
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Scarce Dagger in Bavarian Forest National Park on a given day, against under 5% in July and November–May, the lowest months.
Between 10 pm and 1 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Scarce Dagger sightings with a recorded time, and about half of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is seen both by day and at night.
Among the best
Of the 4 parks where we can rate Scarce Dagger sightings, Bavarian Forest National Park ranks 3rd at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Mercantour National Park (France, about 10%) and Cévennes National Park (France, about 10%).
Same genus: Acronicta
The closest relatives of the Scarce Dagger that you can see in Bavarian Forest National Park (genus Acronicta, Dagger Moths) are Knot Grass Moth (about 20%), Sycamore Moth (about 10%) and Poplar Grey (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Scarce Dagger is recorded against all the insects logged in Bavarian Forest National Park (10 verified sightings from 2019 to 2026), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
