Acronicta aceris
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~40%
The sycamore (Acronicta aceris) is a moth of the family Noctuidae. The species was first described by Carl Linnaeus in his 1758 10th edition of Systema Naturae. It is distributed through most of Europe, from central England south to Morocco. To the east it is found from the Near East and Middle East to western Asia.
The forewings of this species are pale to dark grey with rather indistinct markings apart from a thin black basal streak. The hindwings are white, sometimes with dark streaks at the margin. The wingspan is 40–45 mm. Forewing whitish grey; basal streak thin and interrupted: a black streak through outer line on submedian fold; hindwing white in male, greyish in female, the veins blackish. — ab. infuscata Haw. (2f) has the whole forewing dark suffused grey. - ab. candelisequa Esp., to which Staudinger wrongly sinks infuscata, seems, from the figure, to be intermediate between it and the type, if it belong here at all: ab. intermedia Tutt (= candelisequa Gn. nec Esp.) is the common British form, with forewing darker, tinged with ochreous, and more distinct markings; ab. judaea Stgr. from Palestine is paler, the forewing greyish white... Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 2 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 3 | Cévennes National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 4 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 5 | Sierra de Guadarrama National Park | 🇪🇸 Spain |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | Copenhagen | 🇩🇰 Denmark | |
| 4 | Minsk | 🇧🇾 Belarus | |
| 5 | Kyiv | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | |
| 6 | Helsinki | 🇫🇮 Finland | |
| 7 | Essen | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 8 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 9 | Stockholm | 🇸🇪 Sweden | |
| 10 | Vienna | 🇦🇹 Austria |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Sycamore Moth sighting in Birmingham on a given day, based on 31 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 250th most-seen of the 811 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 40%, if each day is a fresh chance.
May to August
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Sycamore Moth in Birmingham on a given day, against under 5% in September to April, the lowest months.
Between 11 pm and 2 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Sycamore Moth sightings with a recorded time, and about half of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is seen both by day and at night.
Among the best
Of the 22 cities where we can rate Sycamore Moth sightings, Birmingham ranks 8th at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Liverpool (United Kingdom, about 10%), Manchester (United Kingdom, about 10%) and Copenhagen (Denmark, about 10%).
Same genus: Acronicta
The closest relatives of the Sycamore Moth that you can see in Birmingham (genus Acronicta, Dagger Moths) are Knot Grass Moth (about 20%), Grey Dagger (about 10%) and The Miller (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Sycamore Moth is recorded against all the insects logged in Birmingham (31 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
