Carcina quercana
In 3 days ~30% in a week ~50%
Carcina quercana is a species of moth of the family Depressariidae. It is found in Europe. It has been introduced recently in North America, British Columbia and western Washington. It is occasionally known by several common names including oak lantern, long-horned flat-body, and oak-skeletonizer moth (the last most common in North America).
The wingspan is 16–20 mm. The forewings are light ochreous, more or less purple-tinged, sprinkled with dark fuscous; costal edge purple; a yellow blotch along costa near base, and another beyond middle; a fuscous transverse line at 1/4, followed by a yellowish suffusion towards dorsum; stigmata dark grey, plical usually faint; a terminal purple line; cilia bright yellow except on tornus. Hindwings are yellow-whitish, apex rosy-tinged. The larva is pale green; dorsal line darker, paler -edged; head yellowish-green,
The larvae feed on various deciduous trees, including oak and beech. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 2 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 3 | Snowdonia National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Cévennes National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 5 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | Porto | 🇵🇹 Portugal | |
| 4 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 5 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 6 | Copenhagen | 🇩🇰 Denmark | |
| 7 | Hamburg | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 8 | Prague | 🇨🇿 Czechia | |
| 9 | Paris | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 10 | Berlin | 🇩🇪 Germany |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report an Oak Lantern sighting in London on a given day, based on 266 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 201st most-seen of the 1504 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 30%, and over a week to about 50%, if each day is a fresh chance.
July and August
In those months about 20% of wildlife watchers report an Oak Lantern in London on a given day, against under 5% in October to May, the lowest months.
Between 10 pm and 1 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Oak Lantern sightings with a recorded time, and about 6 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is seen both by day and at night.
2nd of 13
Of the 13 cities where we can rate Oak Lantern sightings, London ranks 2nd at about 10%. The best odds are in Liverpool (United Kingdom, about 20%).
Same order: Lepidoptera
The closest relatives of the Oak Lantern that you can see in London (order Lepidoptera, Butterflies and Moths) are Jersey Tiger (about 40%), Speckled Wood (about 40%) and Red Admiral (about 40%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Oak Lantern is recorded against all the insects logged in London (266 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
