Malacosoma disstria
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~40%
The forest tent caterpillar moth (Malacosoma disstria) is a moth found throughout North America, especially in the eastern regions. Unlike related tent caterpillar species, the larvae of forest tent caterpillars do not make tents, but rather, weave a silky sheet where they lie together during molting. They also lay down strands of silk as they move over branches and travel as groups along these pheromone-containing silk trails. The caterpillars are social, traveling together to feed and massing as a group at rest. Group behavior diminishes as the caterpillars increase in size, so that by the fifth instar (molt) the caterpillars are feeding and resting independently.
The adult moths of this species favor oak, sweetgum, tupelo, aspen, and sugar maple for egg laying in the summer. The females lay eggs in masses of up to 300, which are stuck to twigs and covered with a gluey cement called spumaline, which prevents them from desiccating and freezing. Eggs hatch the following spring. The larvae can be found feeding on many other species of deciduous trees or shrubs. High population density outbreaks tend to recur at reasonably regular intervals every decade or so and usually last two to three years, during which time trees and shrubs can be almost completely denuded of leaves. Most plants replace the lost leaves without permanent damage. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Congaree National Park | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 2 | Elk Island National Park | 🇨🇦 Canada | |
| 3 | Voyageurs National Park | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 4 | Acadia National Park | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 5 | Great Smoky Mountains National Park | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 6 | Glacier National Park | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 7 | Grand Teton National Park | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 8 | Shenandoah National Park | 🇺🇸 United States |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edmonton | 🇨🇦 Canada | |
| 2 | Dallas | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 3 | Calgary | 🇨🇦 Canada | |
| 4 | Austin | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 5 | Houston | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 6 | Minneapolis [Saint Paul] | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 7 | San Antonio | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 8 | Montreal | 🇨🇦 Canada | |
| 9 | Vancouver | 🇨🇦 Canada | |
| 10 | Washington | 🇺🇸 United States |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Forest Tent Caterpillar Moth sighting in Minneapolis [Saint Paul] on a given day, based on 74 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 117th most-seen of the 672 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 40%, if each day is a fresh chance.
May
In that month about 20% of wildlife watchers report a Forest Tent Caterpillar Moth in Minneapolis [Saint Paul] on a given day, against under 5% in July to April, the lowest months. That is one of Minneapolis [Saint Paul]'s wettest months, with about 110 mm of rain against 20 mm in January.
Between noon and 3 pm
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Forest Tent Caterpillar Moth sightings with a recorded time, and about 9 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is a daytime animal.
6th of 14
Of the 14 cities where we can rate Forest Tent Caterpillar Moth sightings, Minneapolis [Saint Paul] ranks 6th at about 10%. The best odds are in Edmonton (Canada, about 20%), Dallas (United States, about 10%) and Calgary (Canada, about 10%).
Same order: Lepidoptera
The closest relatives of the Forest Tent Caterpillar Moth that you can see in Minneapolis [Saint Paul] (order Lepidoptera, Butterflies and Moths) are Monarch (about 40%), Black Swallowtail (about 30%) and Red Admiral (about 20%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Forest Tent Caterpillar Moth is recorded against all the insects logged in Minneapolis [Saint Paul] (74 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
