Abrostola triplasia
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~20%
Abrostola triplasia (the dark spectacle) is a moth of the family Noctuidae. It is found across the entire Palearctic realm (Europe (all countries), North Africa, Russia, Siberia, and Japan). Subarctic territories with an average temperature of below 6 °C are an exception. In the warmest and driest regions of the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and the mountains in West and Central Asia, the species occurs only scattered or is entirely lacking.
The wingspan is 32–38 mm. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Snowdonia National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 3 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 4 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany |
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report a Dark Spectacle sighting in Paris on a given day, based on 9 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 592nd most-seen of the 916 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 20%, if each day is a fresh chance.
November
In that month about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Dark Spectacle in Paris on a given day, against under 5% in December to October, the lowest months.
Between 10 pm and 1 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Dark Spectacle sightings with a recorded time, and about half of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is seen both by day and at night.
7th of 10
Of the 10 cities where we can rate Dark Spectacle sightings, Paris ranks 7th at under 5%. The best odds are in Liverpool (United Kingdom, about 10%), Nizhny Novgorod (Russia, under 5%) and Porto (Portugal, under 5%).
Same family: Noctuidae
The closest relatives of the Dark Spectacle that you can see in Paris (family Noctuidae, Cutworm Moths and Allies) are Large Yellow Underwing (about 10%), Silver Υ (about 10%) and Knot Grass Moth (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Dark Spectacle is recorded against all the insects logged in Paris (9 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
