Aricia agestis
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~30%
Aricia agestis, the brown argus, is a butterfly in the family Lycaenidae. It is found throughout the Palearctic realm, north to northern Jutland (Denmark), west as far as coastal Wales and east to Siberia and the Tian Shan.
Above similar to the preceding,[ L. anteros ] deep dark brown, with strongly marked discocellular spot, especially in the male. Typical specimens have this spot black and bear red spots at the outer margin. Underside with numerous ocelli, the hindwing with a pale smear from the apex of the cell to the centre of the outer margin. From Scandinavia to the Sahara and northern India, and from the Canary Isles to... Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cévennes National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 2 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 3 | Fertő-Hanság National Park | 🇭🇺 Hungary | |
| 4 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 5 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Brown Argus sighting in Warsaw on a given day, based on 10 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 322nd most-seen of the 580 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
May and July–August
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Brown Argus in Warsaw on a given day, against under 5% in June and September–April, the lowest months.
Between 11 am and 2 pm
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Brown Argus sightings with a recorded time, and about 9 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is a daytime animal.
17th of 20
Of the 20 cities where we can rate Brown Argus sightings, Warsaw ranks 17th at about 10%. The best odds are in Jerusalem (Israel, about 20%), Budapest (Hungary, about 20%) and Ankara (Turkey, about 10%).
Same family: Lycaenidae
The closest relatives of the Brown Argus that you can see in Warsaw (family Lycaenidae, Gossamer-winged Butterflies) are Common Blue (about 30%), Small Copper (about 20%) and Large Copper (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Brown Argus is recorded against all the insects logged in Warsaw (10 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
