Cosmia trapezina
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~40%
The dun-bar (Cosmia trapezina) is a moth of the family Noctuidae. It is a common Palearctic species. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Snowdonia National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 3 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 4 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 5 | Cévennes National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 6 | Sierra de Guadarrama National Park | 🇪🇸 Spain |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Kharkiv | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | |
| 3 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Sofia | 🇧🇬 Bulgaria | |
| 5 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 6 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 7 | Helsinki | 🇫🇮 Finland | |
| 8 | Kyiv | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | |
| 9 | Berlin | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 10 | Essen | 🇩🇪 Germany |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Dun-Bar sighting in Bavarian Forest National Park on a given day, based on 16 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data from 2019 to 2026. It is the 377th most-seen of the 1115 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 40%, if each day is a fresh chance.
May to August
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Dun-Bar in Bavarian Forest National Park on a given day, against under 5% in September to April, the lowest months.
Between 10 pm and 1 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Dun-Bar sightings with a recorded time, and about 6 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is seen both by day and at night.
Among the best
Of the 6 parks where we can rate Dun-Bar sightings, Bavarian Forest National Park ranks 2nd at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Snowdonia National Park (United Kingdom, about 10%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Dun-Bar is recorded against all the insects logged in Bavarian Forest National Park (16 verified sightings from 2019 to 2026), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
