Nymphalis polychloros
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~30%
The large tortoiseshell or blackleg tortoiseshell (Nymphalis polychloros) is a butterfly of the family Nymphalidae. The species is found in North Africa, southern and central Europe, Turkey, southern Russia, the central and southern Urals, Kazakhstan and the Himalayas. In Central Europe it occurs mainly in warmer regions and has become generally rare, while populations remain more numerous in parts of the Mediterranean region and the southern Alps.
Large tortoiseshells inhabit open woodland, woodland edges and clearings, as well as orchards, hedgerows and areas of scattered trees. The larvae feed on a variety of deciduous trees including elm, poplar, willow and related species, while adults are often found basking on tree trunks or feeding on sap runs, overripe fruit and honeydew.
The species also occurs in Great Britain, where it has recently begun to re-establish itself following a prolonged absence. The large tortoiseshell was formerly widespread throughout England and Wales... Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sierra de Guadarrama National Park | 🇪🇸 Spain | |
| 2 | Monfragüe National Park | 🇪🇸 Spain | |
| 3 | Sierra Nevada National Park | 🇪🇸 Spain | |
| 4 | Cévennes National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 5 | Mercantour National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 6 | Aigüestortes National Park | 🇪🇸 Spain | |
| 7 | Fertő-Hanság National Park | 🇭🇺 Hungary | |
| 8 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 9 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Large Tortoiseshell sighting in Bavarian Forest National Park on a given day, based on 10 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data from 2019 to 2026. It is the 585th most-seen of the 1115 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
March–April and June
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Large Tortoiseshell in Bavarian Forest National Park on a given day, against under 5% in May and July–February, the lowest months.
Between 11 am and 2 pm
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Large Tortoiseshell sightings with a recorded time, and about 8 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is a daytime animal.
9th of 9
Of the 9 parks where we can rate Large Tortoiseshell sightings, Bavarian Forest National Park ranks 9th at about 10%. The best odds are in Sierra de Guadarrama National Park (Spain, about 20%), Monfragüe National Park (Spain, about 20%) and Sierra Nevada National Park (Spain, about 10%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Large Tortoiseshell is recorded against all the insects logged in Bavarian Forest National Park (10 verified sightings from 2019 to 2026), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
