Magusa divaricata
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~40%
Magusa divaricata, the orbed narrow-wing, is a moth of the family Noctuidae. The species was first described by Augustus Radcliffe Grote in 1874. It is found from eastern Canada south through the Caribbean and Central America to Paraguay and Argentina. It is a migratory species, which travels north in late summer and fall.
The wingspan is 40 mm. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Big Bend National Park | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 2 | Cumbres de Monterrey National Park | 🇲🇽 Mexico |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 2 | Monterrey | 🇲🇽 México | |
| 3 | Boston | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 4 | Mexico City | 🇲🇽 México | |
| 5 | Chicago | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 6 | San Antonio | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 7 | Toronto | 🇨🇦 Canada | |
| 8 | Dallas | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 9 | Houston | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 10 | New York City | 🇺🇸 United States |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Variable Narrow-Wing sighting in Austin on a given day, based on 105 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 301st most-seen of the 1624 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 40%, if each day is a fresh chance.
October
In that month about 20% of wildlife watchers report a Variable Narrow-Wing in Austin on a given day, against under 5% in December to May, the lowest months.
Between midnight and 3 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Variable Narrow-Wing sightings with a recorded time, and about 8 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is mostly seen at night.
Yes
Of the 10 cities where we can rate Variable Narrow-Wing sightings, Austin has the highest daily chance: about 10%. Next come Monterrey (México, about 10%) and Boston (United States, under 5%).
Same family: Noctuidae
The closest relatives of the Variable Narrow-Wing that you can see in Austin (family Noctuidae, Cutworm Moths and Allies) are Wedgling Moth (about 20%), Harp-Winged Tripudia Moth (about 20%) and Armyworm Moth (about 20%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Variable Narrow-Wing is recorded against all the insects logged in Austin (105 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
