Catocala nupta
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~30%
The red underwing (Catocala nupta) is a moth of the family Erebidae. The species was first described by Carl Linnaeus in his 1767 12th edition of Systema Naturae. This is a large (80 mm wingspan) nocturnal Palearctic (including Europe) species which, like most noctuids, is above and with the wings closed drably coloured to aid concealment during the day. It flies in August and September, and comes freely to both light and sugar.
C. nupta L. Forewing pale grey powdered with darker grey, sometimes with dark grey banded suffusion, and in some cases yellowish-tinged; sometimes the cellspace before reniform coalescent with the spot below reniform, and a space along outer line, before it above middle and beyond it below, are all whitish: inner and outer lines double, black and grey; the outer line less oblique below middle and forming two more conspicuous angles on each side of vein 2, the lower one double, then deeply indented along vein 1 median shade generally clear and produced squarely outwards beyond the reniform, which has a thick black central lunule, a curved black inner edge, and a tridentate outer one; subterminal line pale and dark grey... Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 2 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 3 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 4 | Sierra de Guadarrama National Park | 🇪🇸 Spain |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Budapest | 🇭🇺 Hungary | |
| 2 | Vienna | 🇦🇹 Austria | |
| 3 | Belgrade | 🇷🇸 Serbia | |
| 4 | Kyiv | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | |
| 5 | Milan | 🇮🇹 Italy | |
| 6 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 7 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 8 | Minsk | 🇧🇾 Belarus | |
| 9 | Berlin | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 10 | Copenhagen | 🇩🇰 Denmark |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Red Underwing sighting in Birmingham on a given day, based on 18 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 367th most-seen of the 811 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
August and September
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Red Underwing in Birmingham on a given day, against under 5% in October to July, the lowest months.
Between 3 and 6 pm
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Red Underwing sightings with a recorded time, and about 7 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is seen both by day and at night.
Among the best
Of the 24 cities where we can rate Red Underwing sightings, Birmingham ranks 7th at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Budapest (Hungary, about 10%), Vienna (Austria, about 10%) and Belgrade (Serbia, about 10%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Red Underwing is recorded against all the insects logged in Birmingham (18 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
