Agrochola bicolorago
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~30%
Agrochola bicolorago, the bicolored sallow or shield-backed cutworm, is a moth in the family Noctuidae. The species was first described by Achille Guenée in 1852. It is found in the eastern half of the United States (except southern Florida) and Canada.
The wingspan is 28–38 mm. Adults are on wing from August to December in the south and from September to November in the north. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Point Pelee National Park | 🇨🇦 Canada | |
| 2 | Shenandoah National Park | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 3 | Great Smoky Mountains National Park | 🇺🇸 United States |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edmonton | 🇨🇦 Canada | |
| 2 | Baltimore | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 3 | Philadelphia | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 4 | Boston | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 5 | Chicago | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 6 | Washington | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 7 | Montreal | 🇨🇦 Canada | |
| 8 | Detroit | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 9 | New York City | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 10 | Minneapolis [Saint Paul] | 🇺🇸 United States |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Bicolored Sallow sighting in Chicago on a given day, based on 119 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 161st most-seen of the 978 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
October
In that month about 20% of wildlife watchers report a Bicolored Sallow in Chicago on a given day, against under 5% in December to August, the lowest months.
Between 8 and 11 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Bicolored Sallow sightings with a recorded time, and about 7 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is seen both by day and at night.
Among the best
Of the 12 cities where we can rate Bicolored Sallow sightings, Chicago ranks 5th at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Edmonton (Canada, about 10%), Baltimore (United States, about 10%) and Philadelphia (United States, about 10%).
Same family: Noctuidae
The closest relatives of the Bicolored Sallow that you can see in Chicago (family Noctuidae, Cutworm Moths and Allies) are American Dagger (about 10%), Armyworm Moth (about 10%) and Corn Earworm Moth (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Bicolored Sallow is recorded against all the insects logged in Chicago (119 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
