Papilio multicaudata
In 3 days ~60% in a week ~90%
Papilio multicaudata, the two-tailed swallowtail, is a species of the family Papilionidae found in western North America from British Columbia to Central America. The two-tailed swallowtail is a large swallowtail of western North America, one of several species that have yellow wings with black tiger striping. Each hindwing has several blue markings (top and bottom). Like other striped swallowtails, it has a small orange eyespot near the lower angle of each hindwing; the eyespots can fool predators into attacking the rear of the butterfly instead of the head, giving the butterfly a chance to escape. Its appearance is similar to the western, and eastern tiger swallowtails, but has narrower black stripes and usually two tails on each hindwing (rather than only one). Most two-tails have a black "slit pupil" in the orange eyespot on each hindwing, never present in western tiger. It is also usually larger than similar swallowtails within its range, although some eastern tiger swallowtails are as big as any two-tailed. The wingspan ranges from 3 to 6.5 inches (7.6 to 16.5 cm), making it the largest swallowtail in western North America. As is the case with most swallowtails... Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zion National Park | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 2 | Guadalupe Mountains National Park | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 3 | Grand Canyon National Park | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 4 | Big Bend National Park | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 5 | Grand Teton National Park | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 6 | Rocky Mountain National Park | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 7 | Saguaro National Park | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 8 | Cumbres de Monterrey National Park | 🇲🇽 Mexico |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 🇲🇽 México | |
| 2 | Mexico City | 🇲🇽 México | |
| 3 | Puebla | 🇲🇽 México | |
| 4 | Ciudad Juárez | 🇲🇽 México | |
| 5 | San Luis Potosí | 🇲🇽 México | |
| 6 | Denver | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 7 | León | 🇲🇽 México | |
| 8 | Salt Lake City | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 9 | San Antonio | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 10 | Austin | 🇺🇸 United States |
Possible
About 20% of wildlife watchers report a Two-Tailed Swallowtail sighting in Ciudad Juárez on a given day, based on 27 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 6th most-seen of the 49 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 60%, and over a week to about 90%, if each day is a fresh chance.
March
In that month about 50% of wildlife watchers report a Two-Tailed Swallowtail in Ciudad Juárez on a given day, against under 5% in January, August and November, the lowest months. That is one of Ciudad Juárez's driest months, with about 10 mm of rain against 50 mm in July.
Between 10 am and 1 pm
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Two-Tailed Swallowtail sightings with a recorded time, and about 9 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is a daytime animal.
4th of 12
Of the 12 cities where we can rate Two-Tailed Swallowtail sightings, Ciudad Juárez ranks 4th at about 20%. The best odds are in Toluca (México, about 50%), Mexico City (México, about 40%) and Puebla (México, about 30%).
Same genus: Papilio
The closest relatives of the Two-Tailed Swallowtail that you can see in Ciudad Juárez (genus Papilio, Common Swallowtails) are Western Giant Swallowtail (about 30%) and Black Swallowtail (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Two-Tailed Swallowtail is recorded against all the insects logged in Ciudad Juárez (27 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
