Syricoris lacunana
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~50%
Syricoris lacunana, the dark strawberry tortrix, is a small moth species of the family Tortricidae. It is found in the Palearctic realm. Like its congeners, it is sometimes still placed in the genus Celypha. Junior synonyms of this species are:
The forewings show various shades of gray brown crossed by a few thin irregular silvery lines. The caterpillars can reach a length of about 15 millimetres (0.59 in) and are coloured brown to dark brown... Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 2 | Triglav National Park | 🇸🇮 Slovenia | |
| 3 | Snowdonia National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 5 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 5 | Leeds | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 6 | Helsinki | 🇫🇮 Finland | |
| 7 | Rotterdam [The Hague] | 🇳🇱 Netherlands | |
| 8 | Amsterdam | 🇳🇱 Netherlands | |
| 9 | Brussels | 🇧🇪 Belgium | |
| 10 | Hamburg | 🇩🇪 Germany |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Common Marble sighting in Manchester on a given day, based on 28 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 149th most-seen of the 458 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 50%, if each day is a fresh chance.
May to September
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Common Marble in Manchester on a given day, against under 5% in October to April, the lowest months.
Between 9 pm and midnight
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Common Marble sightings with a recorded time, and about half of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is seen both by day and at night.
Among the best
Of the 22 cities where we can rate Common Marble sightings, Manchester ranks 4th at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in London (United Kingdom, about 10%), Birmingham (United Kingdom, about 10%) and Liverpool (United Kingdom, about 10%).
Same family: Tortricidae
The closest relatives of the Common Marble that you can see in Manchester (family Tortricidae, Tortricid Leafroller Moths) are Light Brown Apple Moth (about 20%), Common Yellow Conch (about 10%) and Garden Rose Tortrix (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Common Marble is recorded against all the insects logged in Manchester (28 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
