Rivula sericealis
In 3 days ~30% in a week ~60%
Rivula sericealis, the straw dot, is a moth of the family Erebidae. The species was first described by Giovanni Antonio Scopoli in his 1763 Entomologia Carniolica. It is found in Europe including the Iberian Peninsula and southern Fennoscandia and south to North Africa. In an easterly direction, the species occurs across the Palearctic to the Pacific Ocean and Japan. The species closely resembles Evergestis forficalis. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Snowdonia National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 3 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 4 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Turin | 🇮🇹 Italy | |
| 3 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 5 | Kharkiv | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | |
| 6 | Helsinki | 🇫🇮 Finland | |
| 7 | Porto | 🇵🇹 Portugal | |
| 8 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 9 | Berlin | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 10 | Nizhny Novgorod | 🇷🇺 Russia |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Straw Dot sighting in Manchester on a given day, based on 45 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 97th most-seen of the 458 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 30%, and over a week to about 60%, if each day is a fresh chance.
June to August
In those months about 20% of wildlife watchers report a Straw Dot in Manchester on a given day, against under 5% in November to April, the lowest months.
Between 6 and 9 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Straw Dot sightings with a recorded time, and about 6 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is most active around dawn and dusk.
4th of 28
Of the 28 cities where we can rate Straw Dot sightings, Manchester ranks 4th at about 10%. The best odds are in Liverpool (United Kingdom, about 20%), Turin (Italy, about 10%) and Birmingham (United Kingdom, about 10%).
Same family: Erebidae
The closest relatives of the Straw Dot that you can see in Manchester (family Erebidae, Underwing, Tiger, Tussock, and Allied Moths) are Cinnabar Moth (about 40%), Rusty Tussock Moth (about 20%) and Buff Ermine (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Straw Dot is recorded against all the insects logged in Manchester (45 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
