Scoliopteryx libatrix
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~40%
The herald (Scoliopteryx libatrix) is a moth of the family Erebidae. The species was first described by Carl Linnaeus in his 1758 10th edition of Systema Naturae. It is found throughout the Palearctic and Nearctic (Holarctic).
It has a wingspan of about 44 mm. The wings are ample; the forewing angled in the middle of the termen, concave between the angle and the acute apex. Forewing grey mixed with ochreous, with fuscous striae, posteriorly with a rosy tinge: the veins terminally whitish; an irregular median suffusion reaching from base to middle, orange red more or less mixed with yellow; inner and outer lines pale with dark edges; a white spot at base on median vein; a white dot represents the orbicular stigma; reniform formed of two black dots; hindwing fuscous, paler at base; ab. suffusa Tutt is a scarce dark form without the usual rosy tinge in the terminal area of forewing; ab. pallidior Spul. includes pale whitish grey looking examples; while pallida Spul. refers to pale, more yellowish specimens from Turkestan.
The herald's flight period is between June and November, in one or two broods. During the winter the herald... Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mercantour National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 2 | Snowdonia National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 4 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 5 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 6 | Jasper National Park | 🇨🇦 Canada | |
| 7 | Cairngorms National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 8 | Cévennes National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 9 | Banff National Park | 🇨🇦 Canada |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anchorage | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 2 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 5 | Copenhagen | 🇩🇰 Denmark | |
| 6 | Rotterdam [The Hague] | 🇳🇱 Netherlands | |
| 7 | Amsterdam | 🇳🇱 Netherlands | |
| 8 | Helsinki | 🇫🇮 Finland | |
| 9 | Warsaw | 🇵🇱 Poland | |
| 10 | Vienna | 🇦🇹 Austria |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Herald Moth sighting in Manchester on a given day, based on 17 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 200th most-seen of the 458 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 40%, if each day is a fresh chance.
October and December
In those months about 20% of wildlife watchers report a Herald Moth in Manchester on a given day, against under 5% in January–February and April–June, the lowest months.
Between 1 and 4 pm
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Herald Moth sightings with a recorded time, and about 7 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is a daytime animal.
Among the best
Of the 30 cities where we can rate Herald Moth sightings, Manchester ranks 3rd at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Anchorage (United States, about 10%) and Liverpool (United Kingdom, about 10%).
Same family: Erebidae
The closest relatives of the Herald Moth that you can see in Manchester (family Erebidae, Underwing, Tiger, Tussock, and Allied Moths) are Cinnabar Moth (about 40%), Rusty Tussock Moth (about 20%) and Straw Dot (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Herald Moth is recorded against all the insects logged in Manchester (17 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
