Axylia putris
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~50%
The flame (Axylia putris) is a moth of the family Noctuidae. It is found throughout Europe then east across the Palearctic to Armenia, western Siberia and Amur, Korea and Japan. The range extends into northern India. This species has creamy-buff forewings (sometimes tinged with red) with black streaking along the costa. The hindwings are whitish with a dark line along the margin. The wingspan is 30–36 mm. Unusually for a noctuid, this moth rests with its wings wrapped tightly around its body making it resemble a broken twig. It flies at night in June and July (sometimes a second brood is produced which flies in September)[1] and is attracted to light.
Forewing ochreous, the costal area, including cell, dark brown; dark brown patches at the outer margin on both folds, the upper connected with outer line by a dark double streak; inner line strongly angulated; outer represented by a double row of vein-dashes: orbicular and reniform stigmata with dark centres and rings; the former small and round, more rarely flattened: the latter large; hindwing whitish, variably suffused with grey; — the form triseriata Moore, originally described from N. India, but occurring in Japan... Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 2 | Snowdonia National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | Cévennes National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 4 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 5 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Porto | 🇵🇹 Portugal | |
| 3 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Kyiv | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | |
| 5 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 6 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 7 | Essen | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 8 | Paris | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 9 | Seoul | 🇰🇷 South Korea | |
| 10 | Berlin | 🇩🇪 Germany |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a The Flame sighting in Manchester on a given day, based on 24 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 159th most-seen of the 458 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 50%, if each day is a fresh chance.
June
In that month about 20% of wildlife watchers report a The Flame in Manchester on a given day, against under 5% in August to May, the lowest months.
Between 10 pm and 1 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most The Flame sightings with a recorded time, and about 6 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is seen both by day and at night.
Among the best
Of the 11 cities where we can rate The Flame sightings, Manchester ranks 3rd at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Liverpool (United Kingdom, about 10%) and Porto (Portugal, about 10%).
Same family: Noctuidae
The closest relatives of the The Flame that you can see in Manchester (family Noctuidae, Cutworm Moths and Allies) are Large Yellow Underwing (about 30%), Angle Shades (about 20%) and Silver Υ (about 20%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the The Flame is recorded against all the insects logged in Manchester (24 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
