Cydalima perspectalis
In 3 days ~30% in a week ~60%
Cydalima perspectalis, the box moth or box tree moth, is a species of moth of the family Crambidae that feeds on box. It was first described by Francis Walker, the English entomologist, in 1859. It is native to China, Taiwan, Korea, and India; its native status in Japan and the Russian far east is uncertain, some sources saying native, but others saying possibly invasive there. It has invaded Europe; first recorded in Germany in 2006, then Great Britain, the Netherlands, and Switzerland in 2007, France and Austria in 2009, Hungary in 2011, then Romania in 2012, Denmark in 2013, and Spain in 2014. It has also been recorded in Slovakia, Belgium, and Croatia.
During preparations for the 2014 Winter Olympics in 2012, it was introduced accidentally from Italy to Sochi, European Russia, with planting stock of Buxus sempervirens. The following year it defoliated local native box populations extensively.
The eggs are 1 mm in diameter, flat, pale yellow-green, and placed in clusters under green leaves without herbivory present. The larvae emerging from the egg are about 1–2 mm long... Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cévennes National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 2 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 3 | Mercantour National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 4 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 5 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Copenhagen | 🇩🇰 Denmark | |
| 5 | Nanchang | 🇨🇳 China | |
| 6 | Jinan | 🇨🇳 China | |
| 7 | Berlin | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 8 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 9 | Shanghai | 🇨🇳 China | |
| 10 | Dublin | 🇮🇪 Ireland |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Box Tree Moth sighting in Rotterdam [The Hague] on a given day, based on 43 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 35th most-seen of the 355 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 30%, and over a week to about 60%, if each day is a fresh chance.
September
In that month about 30% of wildlife watchers report a Box Tree Moth in Rotterdam [The Hague] on a given day, against under 5% in November to May, the lowest months.
Between 10 pm and 1 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Box Tree Moth sightings with a recorded time, and about half of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is seen both by day and at night.
20th of 51
Of the 51 cities where we can rate Box Tree Moth sightings, Rotterdam [The Hague] ranks 20th at about 10%. The best odds are in Liverpool (United Kingdom, about 40%), London (United Kingdom, about 30%) and Manchester (United Kingdom, about 20%).
Same family: Crambidae
The closest relatives of the Box Tree Moth that you can see in Rotterdam [The Hague] (family Crambidae, Crambid Snout Moths) are Pearl Veneer (about 10%), Mint Moth (about 10%) and Small Grey (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Box Tree Moth is recorded against all the insects logged in Rotterdam [The Hague] (43 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
