Agrochola bicolorago
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~40%
Agrochola bicolorago, the bicolored sallow or shield-backed cutworm, is a moth in the family Noctuidae. The species was first described by Achille Guenée in 1852. It is found in the eastern half of the United States (except southern Florida) and Canada.
The wingspan is 28–38 mm. Adults are on wing from August to December in the south and from September to November in the north. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Point Pelee National Park | 🇨🇦 Canada | |
| 2 | Shenandoah National Park | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 3 | Great Smoky Mountains National Park | 🇺🇸 United States |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edmonton | 🇨🇦 Canada | |
| 2 | Baltimore | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 3 | Philadelphia | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 4 | Boston | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 5 | Chicago | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 6 | Washington | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 7 | Montreal | 🇨🇦 Canada | |
| 8 | Detroit | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 9 | New York City | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 10 | Minneapolis [Saint Paul] | 🇺🇸 United States |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Bicolored Sallow sighting in Point Pelee National Park on a given day, based on 15 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data from 2019 to 2026. It is the 105th most-seen of the 196 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 40%, if each day is a fresh chance.
September
In that month about 30% of wildlife watchers report a Bicolored Sallow in Point Pelee National Park on a given day, against under 5% in November to August, the lowest months.
Between 8 and 11 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Bicolored Sallow sightings with a recorded time, and about 7 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is seen both by day and at night.
Yes
Of the 3 parks where we can rate Bicolored Sallow sightings, Point Pelee National Park has the highest daily chance: about 10%. Next come Shenandoah National Park (United States, under 5%) and Great Smoky Mountains National Park (United States, under 5%).
Same family: Noctuidae
The closest relatives of the Bicolored Sallow that you can see in Point Pelee National Park (family Noctuidae, Cutworm Moths and Allies) are Eight-Spotted Forester Moth (about 20%), Smeared Dagger (about 20%) and Pearly Wood-Nymph (about 20%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Bicolored Sallow is recorded against all the insects logged in Point Pelee National Park (15 verified sightings from 2019 to 2026), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
