Orthosia incerta
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~30%
Orthosia incerta, the clouded drab, is a species of moth of the family Noctuidae, found in Europe and Asia. The occurrence of the species extends through all European countries through the Palearctic to the Russian Far East and Japan. It is absent from northern Fennoscandia and in the Alps it occurs up to 2000 m above sea level.
Forewing grey, varied with fuscous dusting and striation, and often more or less tinged with rufous; inner and outer lines, where visible, marked by dark dots on veins; submargmal line variable, sometimes obscure, at others pale, and preceded by a dark shade, which may be complete or broken up into three blotches; upper stigmata large, the reniform generally dark, both edged with pale; a strong thick median shade, sometimes bent at middle and entire, often marked only at costa and inner margin; hindwing pale or dark grey with dark cellspot and pale fringe. The markings are all clearer in the grey unsuffused forms: of these the chief are pallida Lampa from Sweden with the ground colour pale grey, finely striated with dark, and the two dotted cross lines;- coerulescens Tutt with the ground colour pale bluish grey; — subsetaceus... Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Snowdonia National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Cairngorms National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 4 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 5 | Sierra de Guadarrama National Park | 🇪🇸 Spain | |
| 6 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Kyiv | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | |
| 5 | Nizhny Novgorod | 🇷🇺 Russia | |
| 6 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 7 | Berlin | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 8 | Prague | 🇨🇿 Czechia | |
| 9 | Porto | 🇵🇹 Portugal | |
| 10 | Vienna | 🇦🇹 Austria |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Clouded Drab sighting in Sierra de Guadarrama National Park on a given day, based on 12 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data from 2019 to 2026. It is the 281st most-seen of the 597 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
March and April
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Clouded Drab in Sierra de Guadarrama National Park on a given day, against under 5% in May to February, the lowest months.
Between 6 and 9 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Clouded Drab sightings with a recorded time, and about 7 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is seen both by day and at night.
Among the best
Of the 6 parks where we can rate Clouded Drab sightings, Sierra de Guadarrama National Park ranks 5th at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Snowdonia National Park (United Kingdom, about 10%), Cairngorms National Park (United Kingdom, about 10%) and Wadden Sea National Park (Germany, about 10%).
Same genus: Orthosia
The closest relatives of the Clouded Drab that you can see in Sierra de Guadarrama National Park (genus Orthosia) are Common Quaker (about 10%) and Small Quaker (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Clouded Drab is recorded against all the insects logged in Sierra de Guadarrama National Park (12 verified sightings from 2019 to 2026), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
