Spodoptera frugiperda
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~30%
The fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) is a species in the order Lepidoptera and one of the species of the fall armyworm moths distinguished by their larval life stage. The term "armyworm" can refer to several species, often describing the large-scale invasive behavior of the species' larval stage. It is regarded as a pest and can damage and destroy a wide variety of crops, which causes large economic damage. Its scientific name derives from frugiperda, which is Latin for lost fruit, named because of the species' ability to destroy crops. Because of its propensity for destruction, the fall armyworm's habits and possibilities for crop protection have been studied in depth. It is also a notable case for studying sympatric speciation, as it appears to be diverging into two species currently. Another remarkable trait of the larva is that they consistently practice cannibalism, despite its fitness costs.
The fall armyworm is active at a different time of year from the true armyworm, another species in the order Lepidoptera and family Noctuidae, but of the genus Mythimna. Outbreaks of the true armyworm usually occur during the early part of the summer; the fall armyworm does most damage in the late summer in the southern part of the United States, and early fall in the northern regions. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Big Bend National Park | 🇺🇸 United States |
More parks will be added in future updates.
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 2 | Dallas | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 3 | Houston | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 4 | Chicago | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 5 | Baltimore | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 6 | São Paulo | 🇧🇷 Brazil | |
| 7 | Monterrey | 🇲🇽 México | |
| 8 | San Antonio | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 9 | Miami | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 10 | Boston | 🇺🇸 United States |
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report a Fall Armyworm Moth sighting in Chicago on a given day, based on 107 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 198th most-seen of the 978 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 30%, if each day is a fresh chance.
August to October
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Fall Armyworm Moth in Chicago on a given day, against under 5% in November to July, the lowest months.
Between 10 pm and 1 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Fall Armyworm Moth sightings with a recorded time, and about 6 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is seen both by day and at night.
4th of 13
Of the 13 cities where we can rate Fall Armyworm Moth sightings, Chicago ranks 4th at under 5%. The best odds are in Austin (United States, about 10%), Dallas (United States, about 10%) and Houston (United States, about 10%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Fall Armyworm Moth is recorded against all the insects logged in Chicago (107 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
