Magusa divaricata
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~20%
Magusa divaricata, the orbed narrow-wing, is a moth of the family Noctuidae. The species was first described by Augustus Radcliffe Grote in 1874. It is found from eastern Canada south through the Caribbean and Central America to Paraguay and Argentina. It is a migratory species, which travels north in late summer and fall.
The wingspan is 40 mm. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Big Bend National Park | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 2 | Cumbres de Monterrey National Park | 🇲🇽 Mexico |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 2 | Monterrey | 🇲🇽 México | |
| 3 | Boston | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 4 | Mexico City | 🇲🇽 México | |
| 5 | Chicago | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 6 | San Antonio | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 7 | Toronto | 🇨🇦 Canada | |
| 8 | Dallas | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 9 | Houston | 🇺🇸 United States | |
| 10 | New York City | 🇺🇸 United States |
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report a Variable Narrow-Wing sighting in Chicago on a given day, based on 44 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 332nd most-seen of the 978 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 20%, if each day is a fresh chance.
August
In that month about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Variable Narrow-Wing in Chicago on a given day, against under 5% in September to July, the lowest months.
Between midnight and 3 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Variable Narrow-Wing sightings with a recorded time, and about 8 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is mostly seen at night.
5th of 10
Of the 10 cities where we can rate Variable Narrow-Wing sightings, Chicago ranks 5th at under 5%. The best odds are in Austin (United States, about 10%), Monterrey (México, about 10%) and Boston (United States, under 5%).
Same family: Noctuidae
The closest relatives of the Variable Narrow-Wing that you can see in Chicago (family Noctuidae, Cutworm Moths and Allies) are American Dagger (about 10%), Armyworm Moth (about 10%) and Corn Earworm Moth (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Variable Narrow-Wing is recorded against all the insects logged in Chicago (44 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
