Cosmia trapezina
In 3 days ~50% in a week ~80%
The dun-bar (Cosmia trapezina) is a moth of the family Noctuidae. It is a common Palearctic species. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Snowdonia National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 3 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 4 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 5 | Cévennes National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 6 | Sierra de Guadarrama National Park | 🇪🇸 Spain |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Kharkiv | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | |
| 3 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Sofia | 🇧🇬 Bulgaria | |
| 5 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 6 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 7 | Helsinki | 🇫🇮 Finland | |
| 8 | Kyiv | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | |
| 9 | Berlin | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 10 | Essen | 🇩🇪 Germany |
Possible
About 20% of wildlife watchers report a Dun-Bar sighting in Liverpool on a given day, based on 90 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 102nd most-seen of the 632 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 50%, and over a week to about 80%, if each day is a fresh chance.
July
In that month about 40% of wildlife watchers report a Dun-Bar in Liverpool on a given day, against under 5% in September to May, the lowest months.
Between 10 pm and 1 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Dun-Bar sightings with a recorded time, and about 6 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is seen both by day and at night.
Yes
Of the 21 cities where we can rate Dun-Bar sightings, Liverpool has the highest daily chance: about 20%. Next come Kharkiv (Ukraine, about 10%) and London (United Kingdom, about 10%).
Same family: Noctuidae
The closest relatives of the Dun-Bar that you can see in Liverpool (family Noctuidae, Cutworm Moths and Allies) are Large Yellow Underwing (about 50%), Silver Υ (about 40%) and Heart And Dart (about 40%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Dun-Bar is recorded against all the insects logged in Liverpool (90 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
