Phalera bucephala
In 3 days ~30% in a week ~60%
The buff-tip (Phalera bucephala) is a moth of the family Notodontidae. It is found throughout Europe and in Asia to eastern Siberia. The species was first described by Carl Linnaeus in his 1758 10th edition of Systema Naturae.
The moth is a fairly large, heavy-bodied species with a wingspan of 55–68 mm (2.2–2.7 in). The forewings are grey with a large prominent buff patch at the apex. As the thoracic hair is also buff, the moth resembles a broken twig when at rest. The hindwings are creamy white.
Seitz - Head, collar and centre of thorax brownish yellow, patagia greyish white with a black-brown double basal edge, on the transverse crest 2 black-brown transverse lines, hind margin greyish white. Abdomen yellowish grey to yellowish brown. Forewing greyish brown, broadly white at the base and along the hind margin, with prediscal dark brown and black double band; at the apex a large oval yellow patch reaching down to vein 4, proximally bordered by a dark red-brown semicircle, and traversed below the apex by a broad dentate dull ochreous submarginal spot; the black postdiscal band semicircular in the costal half, parallel with the dark border of the apical patch, and then... Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Snowdonia National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Aigüestortes National Park | 🇪🇸 Spain | |
| 3 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 4 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 5 | Triglav National Park | 🇸🇮 Slovenia | |
| 6 | Doñana National Park | 🇪🇸 Spain | |
| 7 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 8 | Cairngorms National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 9 | Cévennes National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 10 | Sierra de Guadarrama National Park | 🇪🇸 Spain |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 🇵🇹 Portugal | |
| 2 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 5 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 6 | Essen | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 7 | Stockholm | 🇸🇪 Sweden | |
| 8 | Helsinki | 🇫🇮 Finland | |
| 9 | Hamburg | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 10 | Copenhagen | 🇩🇰 Denmark |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Buff-Tip sighting in London on a given day, based on 205 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 164th most-seen of the 1504 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 30%, and over a week to about 60%, if each day is a fresh chance.
July and August
In those months about 20% of wildlife watchers report a Buff-Tip in London on a given day, against under 5% in October to April, the lowest months.
Between 9 am and noon
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Buff-Tip sightings with a recorded time, and about 7 in 10 of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is seen both by day and at night.
Among the best
Of the 21 cities where we can rate Buff-Tip sightings, London ranks 2nd at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Porto (Portugal, about 10%).
Same family: Notodontidae
The closest relatives of the Buff-Tip that you can see in London (family Notodontidae, Prominent Moths) are Oak Processionary (about 10%) and Pale Prominent (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Buff-Tip is recorded against all the insects logged in London (205 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
