Selenia dentaria
In 3 days ~20% in a week ~40%
Selenia dentaria, the early thorn, is a moth of the family Geometridae. It is found in Northern Europe, and across the Palearctic to the Caucasus, Transcaucasia, North Siberia, Russian Far East, Amur and Mongolia. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Snowdonia National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 3 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 4 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 🇵🇹 Portugal | |
| 2 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 5 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 6 | Leeds | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 7 | Copenhagen | 🇩🇰 Denmark |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report an Early Thorn sighting in Manchester on a given day, based on 18 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 194th most-seen of the 458 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 20%, and over a week to about 40%, if each day is a fresh chance.
April and July
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report an Early Thorn in Manchester on a given day, against under 5% in May–June and August–March, the lowest months.
Between 11 pm and 2 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Early Thorn sightings with a recorded time, and about half of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is seen both by day and at night.
Among the best
Of the 7 cities where we can rate Early Thorn sightings, Manchester ranks 2nd at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Porto (Portugal, about 10%).
Same family: Geometridae
The closest relatives of the Early Thorn that you can see in Manchester (family Geometridae, Geometer Moths) are Riband Wave (about 20%), Willow Beauty (about 10%) and Garden Carpet (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Early Thorn is recorded against all the insects logged in Manchester (18 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
