Xanthorhoe fluctuata
In 3 days ~30% in a week ~60%
The garden carpet (Xanthorhoe fluctuata) is a moth of the family Geometridae. It is an abundant and familiar species across its huge range which covers the whole Palearctic region from Ireland to Japan and including the Near East and North Africa. It was first described by Carl Linnaeus in his 1758 10th edition of Systema Naturae.
It has a wingspan of 27–31 mm (1.1–1.2 in). The wings are greyish white with three irregular black blotches along the costa of the forewing, the largest in the middle. Occasionally, much darker (melanic) forms occur. "Easy to recognize, in spite of its variability. In the typical form the ground colour is dirty whitish and the median band is almost or altogether obsolete in its posterior half.
– ab. ochreata Prout has the ground colour ochreous. – In ab. neapolisata Mill, the ground colour is much darkened with brown-grey. – ab. costovata Haw. has the median band much narrowed and somewhat shortened, – deleta Ckll. is merely a rather extreme development of this and need not be separated.
– ab.immaculata Tutt is a much rarer aberration with the median band entirely wanting. – ab. abstersata H.-Sch. shows the opposite extreme of development... Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cairngorms National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Mercantour National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 3 | Sierra Nevada National Park | 🇪🇸 Spain | |
| 4 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 5 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 6 | Snowdonia National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 7 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 8 | Cévennes National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 9 | Sierra de Guadarrama National Park | 🇪🇸 Spain |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 3 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 5 | Kharkiv | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | |
| 6 | Porto | 🇵🇹 Portugal | |
| 7 | Dublin | 🇮🇪 Ireland | |
| 8 | Lyon | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 9 | Leeds | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 10 | Essen | 🇩🇪 Germany |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a Garden Carpet sighting in Manchester on a given day, based on 55 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 89th most-seen of the 458 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 30%, and over a week to about 60%, if each day is a fresh chance.
June and August–September
In those months about 20% of wildlife watchers report a Garden Carpet in Manchester on a given day, against under 5% in October to April, the lowest months.
Between 6 and 9 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Garden Carpet sightings with a recorded time, and about half of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is most active around dawn and dusk.
4th of 32
Of the 32 cities where we can rate Garden Carpet sightings, Manchester ranks 4th at about 10%. The best odds are in Liverpool (United Kingdom, about 30%), Birmingham (United Kingdom, about 10%) and London (United Kingdom, about 10%).
Same genus: Xanthorhoe
The closest relatives of the Garden Carpet that you can see in Manchester (genus Xanthorhoe) are Silver-Ground Carpet (about 10%) and Flame Carpet (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Garden Carpet is recorded against all the insects logged in Manchester (55 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
