Mythimna ferrago
In 3 days ~30% in a week ~50%
Mythimna ferrago, the clay, is a moth of the family Noctuidae. The species was first described by Johan Christian Fabricius in 1787. It is distributed throughout Europe and is also found in Morocco, Algeria, Turkey, Asia Minor, Armenia, Syria, Turkestan, Israel, Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Central Asia and the western parts of temperate North Asia, and Tibet.
The forewings of this species vary from buffish to orangey brown, usually with a darker central line running lengthways down the wing, interrupted by a pale stigma. There are usually a few small dark spots in the basal area. The hindwings are dark grey with paler margins. The male is easily recognizable by a triangular area of black hair on the underside of the abdomen. The wingspan is 36–44 mm. This moth flies at night in July and August[1] and is attracted to light and sugar.
The wingspan is 36–44 mm. Forewing pale greyish rufous, speckled with dark; Lines indistinct, dark grey; the outer regularly lunulate-dentate, the teeth marked by black dashes on veins; reniform stigma obscure, ending in a cloudy pale spot at lower end of cell; hindwing greyish ochreous; ventral tufts black. The species... Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sierra Nevada National Park | 🇪🇸 Spain | |
| 2 | Mercantour National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 3 | Snowdonia National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 5 | Cévennes National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 6 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 7 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 8 | Sierra de Guadarrama National Park | 🇪🇸 Spain |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Kharkiv | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | |
| 3 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 5 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 6 | Kyiv | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | |
| 7 | Copenhagen | 🇩🇰 Denmark | |
| 8 | Moscow | 🇷🇺 Russia |
With luck
About 10% of wildlife watchers report a The Clay sighting in Mercantour National Park on a given day, based on 6 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data from 2019 to 2026. It is the 307th most-seen of the 412 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 30%, and over a week to about 50%, if each day is a fresh chance.
August
In that month about 20% of wildlife watchers report a The Clay in Mercantour National Park on a given day, against under 5% in October to June, the lowest months. That is one of Mercantour National Park's driest months, with about 50 mm of rain against 140 mm in October.
Between 10 pm and 1 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most The Clay sightings with a recorded time, and about 8 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is mostly seen at night.
Among the best
Of the 8 parks where we can rate The Clay sightings, Mercantour National Park ranks 2nd at about 10%, level with the leaders once rounded. The best odds are in Sierra Nevada National Park (Spain, about 10%).
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the The Clay is recorded against all the insects logged in Mercantour National Park (6 verified sightings from 2019 to 2026), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
