Cosmia trapezina
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~20%
The dun-bar (Cosmia trapezina) is a moth of the family Noctuidae. It is a common Palearctic species. Wikipedia →
| # | Park | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Snowdonia National Park | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Bavarian Forest National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 3 | Pyrénées National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 4 | Wadden Sea National Park | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 5 | Cévennes National Park | 🇫🇷 France | |
| 6 | Sierra de Guadarrama National Park | 🇪🇸 Spain |
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 2 | Kharkiv | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | |
| 3 | London | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 4 | Sofia | 🇧🇬 Bulgaria | |
| 5 | Birmingham | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 6 | Manchester | 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | |
| 7 | Helsinki | 🇫🇮 Finland | |
| 8 | Kyiv | 🇺🇦 Ukraine | |
| 9 | Berlin | 🇩🇪 Germany | |
| 10 | Essen | 🇩🇪 Germany |
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report a Dun-Bar sighting in Sierra de Guadarrama National Park on a given day, based on 5 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data from 2019 to 2026. It is the 528th most-seen of the 597 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 20%, if each day is a fresh chance.
June and July
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Dun-Bar in Sierra de Guadarrama National Park on a given day, against under 5% in August to May, the lowest months. Those are among Sierra de Guadarrama National Park's driest months, with about 45 mm of rain a month against 110 mm in November.
Between 10 pm and 1 am
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Dun-Bar sightings with a recorded time, and about 6 in 10 of them come between 6 pm and 6 am: it is seen both by day and at night.
6th of 6
Of the 6 parks where we can rate Dun-Bar sightings, Sierra de Guadarrama National Park ranks 6th at under 5%. The best odds are in Snowdonia National Park (United Kingdom, about 10%), Bavarian Forest National Park (Germany, about 10%) and Pyrénées National Park (France, about 10%).
Same family: Noctuidae
The closest relatives of the Dun-Bar that you can see in Sierra de Guadarrama National Park (family Noctuidae, Cutworm Moths and Allies) are Silver Υ (about 10%), Turnip Moth (about 10%) and Common Quaker (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Dun-Bar is recorded against all the insects logged in Sierra de Guadarrama National Park (5 verified sightings from 2019 to 2026), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
