Ascalapha odorata
In 3 days ~10% in a week ~20%
The erebid moth Ascalapha odorata, commonly known as the black witch, is a large bat-shaped, dark-colored nocturnal moth, normally ranging from the southern United States to Brazil. Ascalapha odorata is also migratory into Canada and most states of the United States. It is the largest noctuoid in the continental United States. In the folklore of many Central and South American cultures, it is associated with death or misfortune.
Female moths can attain a wingspan of 24 cm. The dorsal surfaces of their wings are mottled brown with hints of iridescent purple and pink, and, in females, crossed by a white bar. The diagnostic marking is a small spot on each forewing shaped like a number nine or a comma. This spot is often green with orange highlights. Males are somewhat smaller, reaching 12 cm in width, darker in color and lacking the white bar crossing the wings. The larva is a large caterpillar up to 7 cm in length with intricate patterns of black and greenish-brown spots and stripes.
The black witch lives from the southern United States, Mexico and Central America to Brazil, and even Argentina. Also, the moth has apparently been introduced... Wikipedia →
| # | City | Country | Daily sighting probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valencia | 🇻🇪 Venezuela | |
| 2 | Quito | 🇪🇨 Ecuador | |
| 3 | Havana | 🇨🇺 Cuba | |
| 4 | San Pedro Sula | 🇭🇳 Honduras | |
| 5 | Toluca | 🇲🇽 México | |
| 6 | Tegucigalpa | 🇭🇳 Honduras | |
| 7 | Cali | 🇨🇴 Colombia | |
| 8 | Puebla | 🇲🇽 México | |
| 9 | Santa Cruz de la Sierra | 🇧🇴 Bolivia | |
| 10 | Managua | 🇳🇮 Nicaragua |
Rare
Under 5% of wildlife watchers report a Black Witch sighting in Orlando on a given day, based on 6 verified sightings from GBIF citizen-science data. It is the 240th most-seen of the 294 insects we can rate there. Over three days the chance rises to about 10%, and over a week to about 20%, if each day is a fresh chance.
June and September
In those months about 10% of wildlife watchers report a Black Witch in Orlando on a given day, against under 5% in July–August and October–May, the lowest months. Those are among Orlando's wettest months, with about 190 mm of rain a month against 50 mm in November.
Between 7 and 10 pm
Across all the parks we cover, that three-hour window holds the most Black Witch sightings with a recorded time, and about half of them come between 6 am and 6 pm: it is seen both by day and at night.
59th of 66
Of the 66 cities where we can rate Black Witch sightings, Orlando ranks 59th at under 5%. The best odds are in Valencia (Venezuela, about 40%), Quito (Ecuador, about 40%) and Havana (Cuba, about 30%).
Same family: Erebidae
The closest relatives of the Black Witch that you can see in Orlando (family Erebidae, Underwing, Tiger, Tussock, and Allied Moths) are Spotted Oleander Moth (about 10%) and Fir Tussock Moth (about 10%), with each one's daily chance of a sighting.
GBIF citizen-science records
It is estimated from how often the Black Witch is recorded against all the insects logged in Orlando (6 verified sightings), calibrated against known sighting rates. Figures are rounded to the nearest 10% because citizen-science data supports honest approximations, not decimals, and months with records from fewer than five people show "—". How it works.
